The Ledger Letter Finance Studio Advisors · Monday, October 5, 2026 |
Bitcoin Held $86,000 as the Dollar Hit an 18-Month HighThe dollar index touched 102.53 this morning, its highest since April 2025. A stronger dollar usually drags on bitcoin and gold. This morning, both rose with it. Bitcoin traded near $86,000, and gold added about 0.6%. When the currency and the assets people buy to escape it climb together, the market is hedging something bigger than the dollar. |
The Breakdown Today’s disagreement: the dollar index says money is running toward America; bitcoin and gold say money is running away from government paper. |
| 01 | The Dollar The dollar index rose 0.39% to 102.33 after touching 102.53, its highest level since April 10, 2025, per Reuters. |
| | 02 | The Coin Bitcoin traded near $86,000, up about 0.8%. Its 30-day implied volatility gauge has sat between 35% and 40% since mid-September. |
| | 03 | The New Product On October 2, the SEC cleared six 3x leveraged ETFs covering bitcoin, ether, gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas. None can trade yet. |
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A Message From Our Partner A former hedge fund manager whose firm Barron’s ranked in the top 1% worldwide says buying Bitcoin is the wrong move. His readers have had the chance to collect $4,898… $11,145… and even $17,350 from Bitcoin’s moves without owning a single coin. |
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| By the Numbers | Dollar Index, Monday | 102.33, high 102.53 | | Bitcoin | Near $86,000 | | Gold | About $4,190, up 0.6% | | S&P 500 Futures | Down about 0.1% | | October Hike Odds | About 23% |
Market data as of early Monday, October 5, 2026, per Reuters, CoinDesk and Yahoo Finance. Hike odds per CME FedWatch as of the Friday close. |
A Message From Our Partner We believe Executive Order 14241 has unleashed a potentially huge change to America’s money. Republican or Democrat, whether you support or oppose Trump’s New Dollar, you could soon be using it. If you have savings in the bank or a stock portfolio, we believe you need to understand what’s unfolding, and take specific action to prepare. In Porter Stansberry’s new documentary, you’ll discover: - How the last time America reset its money, it minted 1,300 new millionaires a day, and why we believe what’s coming could be bigger still.
- The 5 assets to own before America’s new money rolls out, including the one Porter would buy today for immediate exposure.
- The critical resources Trump is moving heaven and earth to control, because America’s new money depends on it.
- Why the U.S. government is suddenly buying ownership stakes in tiny American mining companies, a move not seen since the depths of World War II.
- Why a single gathering of world leaders this December, at Trump’s own Miami resort, could be the moment America’s new dollar is revealed to the world as a done deal.
Many thanks,
Jared Kelly
CEO, Porter & Co. |
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The Dollar Is Strong. The Exits Are Busy.What the Headlines Lead With Most coverage this morning leads with the dollar. The index has risen for three straight weeks, and Friday’s weak jobs report did not stop it. Much of that strength is a euro story. The euro is weighed down by French budget worries, and the euro makes up the largest share of the dollar index. So the 18-month high says less about American strength than it appears. It says Europe looks weaker. Why Bitcoin Should Have Slipped In most years, a rising dollar is bad news for bitcoin and gold. Both are priced in dollars. When the dollar gains, they cost more for everyone else. That link broke this morning. Bitcoin held near $86,000 while the dollar climbed. Gold rose too. Our view: buyers are not betting against the dollar. They are hedging against government debt in general, euro, yen and dollar alike. That is a different trade, and a slower one to unwind. The options market agrees. Bitcoin’s volatility gauge has held between 35% and 40% for three weeks, a sign traders expect orderly trading rather than a panic. Bitcoin is still about 12% below its 2026 high near $97,900. Calm is not the same as strength. The 3x Problem Friday’s SEC approval drew attention for a reason. Until now, US crypto funds were capped at 2x leverage. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas summed up the new funds: leveraged ETFs are for trading, not investing. The new funds reset their leverage every day. That creates a trap in choppy markets. If bitcoin rises 10% one day and falls 10% the next, it ends down 1%. A 3x fund ends down 9%. The issuer’s own prospectus says the product may be deemed speculative and suits only those who can bear a total loss. For most savers, it is a trading tool, not a holding. The Week Ahead The ISM services survey lands at 10 a.m. Eastern today. It is a monthly poll of purchasing managers outside factories. Fed officials Williams and Bowman speak this afternoon. Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting arrive Wednesday at 2 p.m. A soft services number would push October hike odds lower still. Watch two lines together. If the dollar index clears 102.53 and bitcoin holds above $85,000, the hedge against government paper is real. If bitcoin slips below $82,000 while the dollar climbs, the old pattern is back. Worth watching: whether gold and bitcoin keep rising on the same days. When they move together, the buyer is usually the same nervous saver. |
A Message From Our Partner On a Sunday evening in August 1971, President Nixon interrupted television programming with an announcement that would permanently reshape the financial system. Most Americans didn’t realize it at the time. But after the U.S. officially moved away from the gold standard, inflation accelerated, the dollar changed, and gold entered one of the biggest rallies in modern history. Today, many investors believe we may be approaching another important financial turning point. That’s why this new FREE guide is getting attention. Inside, you’ll discover: - What actually happened the night Nixon ended the gold standard
- Why gold prices surged in the years that followed
- Why some analysts believe gold could become even more important ahead
- How retirement savers are using diversification strategies during uncertain markets
- The “wealth transfer” theory many Americans are now watching closely
Whether you already invest in gold or are simply curious about what may come next, this report offers a deeper look into one of the most talked-about financial topics today. Reagan Gold Group does not provide financial, legal, or tax advice. This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments carry risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult your licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. |
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The dollar won the week. The exits from paper money got crowded anyway. |
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