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The Ledger Letter
Finance Studio Advisors · Wednesday, June 10, 2026
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Market Intelligence Partner
Editor’s Note: Hedge fund legend who delivered a 279% return on cash in 2025 and went on a 20 year winning streak, says Elon Musk is now executing the “Final Phase of his Master Plan”… and he’s identified the ONE ticker that stands to benefit most (it’s not SpaceX, Tesla, or anything you’d associate Elon with). Click here to see the details.
Dear Reader,
Right now, every investor I speak to is asking the same question.
“Larry, how do I get a piece of SpaceX?”
I understand why. SpaceX is one of the most extraordinary companies ever built.
But here’s what I tell them:
SpaceX is already valued at around $1.75 trillion before a single share trades publicly.
The investors who made life-changing money on SpaceX got in years ago.
I’ve seen this time and time again.
Everyone piles into the obvious trade — the one with the loudest headlines and the most excitement — and they miss where the money is actually going.
And right now, while the whole world is staring at Elon’s rockets, there is ONE ticker that’s largely forgotten — directly in the path of a massive wealth transfer that the “Final Phase of Elon’s Master Plan” is about to trigger.
It’s not SpaceX. It’s not Tesla. It’s nothing you’d expect.
But when the “Final Phase” kicks in, that’s where the money flows.
I’m giving away the name and ticker today — completely free — to everyone who watches my briefing.
Regards,
Larry Benedict
Founder, The Opportunistic Trader
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The Bond Market Already Voted. Equities Haven’t Opened the Envelope.
May CPI lands at 8:30 this morning. Consensus expects 4.2 percent year over year on the headline, which would mark the highest reading since April 2023. Core is expected at 2.9 percent. But the 10-year Treasury yield has already moved to 4.57 percent, its highest level in two weeks, without waiting for the print. Rate-hike probability for December has climbed above 70 percent. The equity market closed yesterday within 1 percent of its weekly high. One of these markets is wrong. The CPI print will not settle the argument. It will tell you which one has to adjust.
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The Breakdown
Today’s disagreement: equities are positioned for a soft landing that rate cuts eventually confirm. Bonds and the dollar are positioned for an inflation regime that forces the Fed to hold or hike. Both cannot be right.
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The Yield Curve Already Moved
The 10-year yield closed at 4.57 percent yesterday, its highest level in two weeks, per the Federal Reserve’s H.15 release. The 2-year reached 4.17 percent as of last Friday, its highest level since February 2025, per Advisor Perspectives. The curve is steepening on the long end while the Fed holds rates steady. That is the market pricing in duration risk from sticky inflation, not easing.
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| 02 |
The Dollar Agrees with Bonds, Not Stocks
The dollar index rallied to a 1.75-month high last week after the May payrolls report blew past expectations at 172,000 versus the 80,000 consensus. A strong labor market and elevated yields are pulling capital into the dollar. That combination compresses equity multiples and puts pressure on any growth stock priced for rate relief that is not coming.
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| 03 |
Oil Is the Swing Variable
Crude fell roughly 2 percent yesterday after Iran and Israel agreed to halt strikes, per Schwab. That eased one tail risk. But April CPI already printed energy at 17.9 percent year over year, per the BLS. Even if oil softens from here, the pass-through into services and freight is already in the pipeline. Our view: the ceasefire lowers the ceiling on oil, but the floor is still well above where equity earnings models were built.
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The Cross-Asset Snapshot
| S&P 500 (Tue close) | 7,386.65 (−0.26%) |
| Nasdaq Composite (Tue) | 25,678.82 (−0.97%) |
| 10-yr Treasury yield | 4.57% — 2-wk high |
| DXY dollar index | 1.75-month high |
| WTI crude | Lower on ceasefire talks |
| Gold | ~$4,300 (recovering) |
| VIX | 20.45 (pre-CPI) |
Levels as of Tuesday June 9 close. Sources: CNBC, FRED, Trading Economics, Schwab.
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The Print Is Not the Story. The Positioning Is.
What Consensus Expects
Wall Street consensus, as compiled by Kiplinger and Dow Jones, expects May headline CPI at 4.2 percent year over year, up from April’s 3.8 percent. That would be the highest annual reading since April 2023. Core CPI is expected at 2.9 percent year over year. The monthly headline number is forecast at 0.5 percent, driven by another surge in energy costs. April’s energy component ran 17.9 percent year over year. The question for the tape is not whether the number is hot. The question is whether the market has already priced it.
What Bonds Have Already Priced
The answer from the Treasury market is: yes, and then some. The 10-year yield at 4.57 percent is not waiting for confirmation. It has moved steadily higher since the May payrolls surprise on Friday, when the economy added 172,000 jobs against expectations of 80,000. Rate-cut expectations for 2026 have been entirely eliminated from fed funds futures. CME FedWatch now prices roughly a 70 percent probability of a quarter-point rate hike by December. The bond market is not hedging against inflation. It is pricing an inflation regime. In this tape, the fixed-income complex has already submitted its verdict on CPI before the BLS opens the file.
What Equities Have Not Adjusted
The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 7,386, down a quarter of a percent. After a 4.18 percent Nasdaq rout on Friday, a 1.44 percent bounce Monday, and another leg down Tuesday, equities are essentially flat on the week heading into the number. The VIX sits at 20.45. That is elevated relative to May’s calm, but not elevated enough to reflect what the bond market is saying. Our view: the equity market is treating CPI as a coin flip. The bond market is treating it as a foregone conclusion. When those two postures collide with the same data point at 8:30, the adjustment will be one-directional.
The Dollar Is the Tiebreaker
Watch the dollar index. DXY hit a 1.75-month high last week and has held that level into this morning. A strong dollar with rising yields and hot inflation is a vise on risk assets. It raises the cost of capital, compresses foreign earnings for multinationals, and drains liquidity from emerging markets. If CPI prints at or above consensus and the dollar extends higher, equities will have to reconcile their soft-landing positioning with a hard-money reality. If CPI somehow cools below 4 percent, bonds and the dollar are the ones that have to unwind. Worth watching: gold strengthened above $4,300 yesterday on the Iran-Israel ceasefire, but it remains well below its 2026 highs. In a true inflation regime, gold should be leading, not lagging. Its hesitation suggests the market is still uncertain about which narrative wins.
The Week Ahead Is Not Just CPI
Producer Price Index lands Thursday. Investors are also preparing for several major capital-raising events later this week. The Fed meets next week. This is a sequence, not a single event. If CPI confirms acceleration, PPI reinforces it, and the Fed signals it is watching rather than acting, the 10-year yield has room to move higher still. If that happens, the equity market’s pricing of continued AI-led expansion runs directly into a cost-of-capital wall. Nobody is going to reclassify this tape for you. The data arrives in sequence. Read it the way a bond trader does: one number at a time, cumulative, not episodic.
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When markets disagree, the signal is in the disagreement. Stocks are waiting for CPI to tell them what to do. The bond market already did it. One of them reprices by the close.
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The Ledger Letter
When markets disagree, the signal is in the disagreement.
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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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