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The Ledger Letter
Finance Studio Advisors
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Market Intelligence Partner
What if you could retire months, even years, ahead of schedule?
All by positioning in one ticker at the center of something huge coming out of the White House.
Larry Benedict made $274 million for his clients by getting ahead of moves like this.
Now he’s doing the same for his readers, including one who made $50,000 last year following Larry’s recommendations.*
Today, Larry is revealing the one ticker he believes could benefit most from this White House move.
* The investment results described in these testimonials are not typical; investing in securities carries a high degree of risk; you may lose some or all of the investment.
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Brent Broke $100. The Rate Market Barely Moved.
Brent crude went through $100 this morning, its first time above that level since July. Houthi attacks halted operations at Saudi energy facilities. WTI settled Tuesday at $93.03, a sixth straight gain. The Dow shed 628 points. The September hike lean sits near 58 against 42 hold, roughly where it sat on Friday. Two markets repriced the war. The one that sets rates has not.
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The Breakdown
Today’s disagreement: oil and equities are pricing a supply shock; the rate market is still pricing Friday’s payroll report.
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| 01 |
The Oil Tape
Brent settled Tuesday at $97.92, its highest since July 23, and broke $100 this morning. WTI settled $93.03, up 1.69%, a sixth consecutive gain and its best close since June 4. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 285.4 million barrels last week.
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| 02 |
The Equity Tape
The Dow fell 628.18 points on Tuesday, or 1.18%, to 52,786.07, a second straight losing session. The S&P 500 gave up 0.58% to 7,673.52. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.32%. Futures are lower again this morning.
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| 03 |
The Market That Sat Still
Rate futures put September near 58 hike against 42 hold. That is a lean priced by traders, not a decision. The ten-year sat at 4.79%, close to its three-year highs, with the thirty-year at 5.27%. August CPI prints Friday.
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Tuesday, by the Numbers
| Brent Crude | $97.92 (+0.95%): high since Jul 23 |
| WTI Crude | $93.03 (+1.69%): sixth straight gain |
| Dow Jones | 52,786.07 (−628.18) |
| S&P 500 | 7,673.52 (−0.58%) |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.79% |
| Gold (spot) | $4,395.51 (−0.38%) |
Tuesday, Sept. 8 close; the Brent break above $100 is this morning. Gold is quoted on the USAGOLD spot series, the one this letter uses as standard. The hike figure is a market price rather than a forecast. Sources: CNBC; Trading Economics; USAGOLD; Department of Energy.
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The Rate Market Is Still Reading Friday
What Oil Repriced
The move that matters this morning is in crude. Brent broke $100 a barrel, its first time above that level since July, after Houthi attacks halted operations at Saudi energy facilities. On Tuesday it settled at $97.92, the highest since July 23. WTI settled at $93.03, up 1.69%, a sixth consecutive gain and its best close since June 4. Underneath that, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 285.4 million barrels last week. The buffer is thin and the supply story is live.
What Equities Repriced
Stocks took the message. The Dow fell 628.18 points on Tuesday, or 1.18%, to 52,786.07. That was a second straight losing session. The S&P 500 gave up 0.58% to 7,673.52 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.32% to 26,421.41. Futures are lower again this morning. Energy is an input to every margin in the index, and the tape is treating it as one. Two sessions of selling is a market that believes the barrel.
Why the Rate Market Is the Outlier
Then there is the market that sets the price of money. Rate futures put September near 58 hike against 42 hold. That is a lean priced by traders rather than a decision, and it is roughly where it sat after Friday’s payroll report. The ten-year sat at 4.79% on Tuesday, close to its three-year highs, with the thirty-year at 5.27%. Gold spot fell 0.38% to $4,395.51, giving ground while the war ran. So the rate complex is still trading the labor market, and oil is trading a supply shock. Only one of those is in the price for next week.
The Level to Watch Friday at 8:30
August CPI prints Friday, September 11, at 8:30 ET. The Fed meets from the 15th and decides on the 16th. Watch core, month over month. A reading of 0.3% or higher and the pass-through argument writes itself, and 58 stops being a coin flip. At 0.2% nothing changes. At 0.1% or less the committee gets to treat the barrel as a tax rather than a regime. The line is Brent at $100. Hold above it into Friday and the rate market has to catch up. Fail it, and this was a headline rather than a repricing.
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Crude repriced the war. Stocks repriced the crude. The Fed is still reading a jobs report.
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