Peak Profits Sometimes Print at the TopThe Records That Printed Friday Chevron booked $12.1 billion in Q2 net income Friday, the highest quarterly profit in the company’s history. Exxon posted $14.5 billion, its strongest quarter since 2022 and roughly double last year. Shell reported the second-biggest quarter in its own record book. Between the three companies, roughly $404 million in daily profit for the quarter, per NPR’s tally. That is a level of energy earnings the tape has not seen in a generation. All three companies emphasized capital discipline, returning cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks rather than expanding capex. Two Weekend Catalysts, Same Direction Trump announced Saturday he had called off planned US strikes on Iran, saying Tehran had requested a pause for a rapid deal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Iran war premium the oil majors had been printing on for two quarters lost its trigger overnight. OPEC+ separately agreed a 188,000 barrel-per-day September output hike, completing the rollback of the voluntary cuts it made in 2023. That is more barrels arriving from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Russia into a market that just lost its scarcity story. Our view: two catalysts pointing the same direction on the same weekend rarely produce a single-day event. This reads as a regime shift, not a headline pop. What Broke by Monday Morning Crude dropped 6% in early trading. Brent slid back through the mid-$80s. US equity futures picked up between 0.6% and 0.95% on the risk-off unwind. Bond yields eased at the front of the curve as short-run inflation pressure faded. Energy stocks close Friday near their highs of the year on those record prints. They open Monday at an inflection. In this tape, buybacks and dividends can still cushion the shareholder return story, but the underlying trade that generated the earnings has changed. Worth Watching ISM Manufacturing lands 10:00 a.m. ET this morning. Wednesday brings ISM Services. Friday delivers the July non-farm payrolls report, with consensus at 83,000 jobs and unemployment at 4.3%. Watch whether crude finds a bid before $80 or breaks it. Watch whether the 30-year Treasury holds Friday’s 5.25% high or eases with the inflation pressure. And watch whether the energy sector holds its record-quarter highs into the September OPEC+ delivery. | 