The Ledger Letter
Finance Studio Advisors · October 24, 2026
 

Diesel Costs $6.28 a Gallon. Gasoline Got Cheaper This Week.

The heating season starts in eight days, and distillate stocks sit about 9% below their five-year average.
 
The Breakdown
Crude is pricing a war. Diesel is pricing a refinery problem that a ceasefire would not fix.
 
01
Crude hit a six-month high
Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday, up 6.2% on the week. December WTI settled at $103.27.
02
Diesel is the tighter barrel
Distillate stocks stood at 104.3 million barrels, roughly 10.7 million below the five-year average.
03
The pump disagreed with itself
Retail diesel rose about 10 cents to $6.276. Gasoline fell about 5 cents to $4.284.
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By the Numbers
Brent crude$116.72, a six-month high
December WTI$103.27, up 4.3% on the week
US distillate stocks104.3 million barrels, about 9% below the five-year average
Retail diesel$6.276 a gallon, up about 10 cents
Retail gasoline$4.284 a gallon, down about 5 cents
Settlement prices as of the October 23 close. Inventory data from the EIA week ended October 16. Retail prices from the EIA survey dated October 19.

Crude is one market. The middle of the barrel is another.

What the Headlines Lead With

Friday belonged to crude and the Middle East. Brent topped $116 for the first time in six months as tensions swelled. It finished the week up 6.2%, while December WTI added 4.3%.

Equities closed lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,623 and the Dow dropped 1.24% to 52,214. The Nasdaq slipped 0.21% to 25,955. On the week the Dow gained 0.41% while the S&P lost 0.47%. The 10-year ended at 4.987%, down about 11 basis points on the week. Final October consumer sentiment came in at 48.0 against a 46.3 forecast.

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Coffee farm in the Colombian hills
In 1992 a small coffee company out of Seattle sold shares to the public at about 27 cents, split-adjusted.
Two men read the same prospectus that year.
One put money in. The other decided coffee was a fad and kept his cash where it felt safe.
You know how that ended. The stock trades above $90 today.
Nobody is going to tell you the next one is sitting in front of you. No one can know that.
But the shape of the decision does not change. One man looked at what he had and put it to work. The other looked at it and saw only what he might lose.
So here is one real thing happening now, and you can weigh it yourself.
Green Coffee Company is the largest producer of Colombian coffee. 45 farms. More than 10 million trees. It holds the exclusive third-party rights to sell Juan Valdez coffee across the U.S. and Canada, the brand Colombia has stood behind since 1959.
Revenue went from $1 million in 2021 to $26 million in 2025. This year’s harvest is projected at 5.1 million pounds, up from 2.3 million. The coffee is on more than 3,000 shelves now, in Target, in Walgreens, across 21 states.
A farmer plants a coffee tree and waits years for a real harvest. That is the whole business. It is also the whole point.
Shares are $1.15. The minimum is $1,000.50. More than 2,000 investors have already put in over $120 million. It is private, it is illiquid, and you could lose what you put in. Read the circular and decide for yourself.
Rights apply to retail and institutional sales in the U.S. and Canada (non-cafe business) and are governed by a 10-year agreement to manufacture and distribute the iconic Juan Valdez® brand in the U.S. and Canada. Juan Valdez®, Procafecol S.A., the National Coffee Federation of Colombia, and any of their respective affiliates (collectively, the “Juan Valdez Parties”) are not sponsors, issuers, co-issuers, promoters, guarantors, underwriters, placement agents, or participants in any manner in this investment offering. The Juan Valdez Parties have not reviewed, approved, authorized, endorsed, recommended, or verified this offering, any related offering materials, or any statements made herein, and do not express any view or opinion regarding the merits, risks, or suitability of this investment. Any reference to the “Juan Valdez®” brand or related trademarks is made solely for the limited purpose of describing an existing commercial agreement relating to the manufacture, marketing, and sale of certain coffee products. Such agreement does not extend to, and expressly excludes, any securities offering, fundraising activity, investment program, or capital-raising transaction. Investors should not rely on the existence of any trademark license, brand association, or commercial agreement with the Juan Valdez Parties as an indicator of financial performance, investment quality, creditworthiness, risk mitigation, or likelihood of success of the issuer or this offering. The continuation of any commercial agreement is subject to contractual terms and conditions and may be modified or terminated, and no assurance is given that any such relationship will continue for any period of time. No Juan Valdez Party assumes any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the information contained in this offering, nor for any investment decision made by any investor.
Why It Matters

Crude is the input. Diesel is the product, and the two are not the same market. Only part of global refining capacity can turn out large volumes of distillate. That capacity also sits far from much of the demand.

US diesel exports rose 41% from a year earlier to 1.41 million barrels a day. Those barrels left domestic tanks. The ULSD crack spread set a record of $117.92 a barrel on September 16. The 3-2-1 crack averaged $68.23 in September, the highest monthly reading since June 2006. Refiners are earning that margin because the product is scarce, not because crude is expensive.

That distinction matters for how long this lasts. A crude rally ends when a shipment reroutes or a ceasefire holds. A product squeeze ends only when refining capacity catches up, and new distillate capacity takes years rather than weeks to build.

What It Means for Your Money

Diesel moves freight, farm equipment and home heating. It is a cost input rather than a discretionary purchase, so consumer choice does not ration it.

The gap between retail diesel and gasoline is now about $1.99 a gallon. That spread travels into grocery and goods prices with a lag of weeks rather than days. Entering the heating season with stocks 9% below the five-year average leaves very little cushion. One cold month or one refinery outage closes what is left. If you heat with oil, the exposure is direct and arrives in the next delivery.

There is a second route into your accounts. Energy is the piece of inflation the Fed cannot reach with rates, and September CPI already ran at 3.7%. A diesel-led leg keeps that number sticky into December, which is where the hike is priced.

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The Day Ahead

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with the decision Wednesday afternoon. Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday and Amazon follows Thursday. Those three carry more index weight than the entire energy sector.

Watch the weekly distillate number more closely than the crude headline. Crude can fall on a diplomatic story while diesel stays tight, because the constraint is refining rather than the supply of oil. The sentiment revision up to 48.0 also complicates the soft-consumer read heading into the meeting.

One more thing worth tracking next week. Refiners usually run hard in October to build winter stocks, and this year the barrels went abroad instead. If exports stay near 1.4 million a day through November, the cushion does not rebuild before the cold arrives.

Crude gets the headline. Diesel sets the bill, and the bill arrives inside everything that moves.

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