The Ledger Letter
Finance Studio Advisors · Thursday, July 2, 2026
Market Intelligence Partner
Dear Reader,
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently said something that shocked most investors…
Stating that robotics is the tech giant’s biggest opportunity after AI.
“We’re working towards a day where there will be billions of robots, hundreds of millions of autonomous vehicles and hundreds of thousands of robotic factories that can be powered by Nvidia technology,” Huang said.
The market reacted…
Helping Nvidia become the world’s first five-trillion-dollar company.
Thanks to its entry into the lucrative robotics market.
But here’s what the headlines missed…
Nvidia didn’t do this alone.
And if history is any indicator…
Nvidia’s $7 silent partner could be due for a big move up.
Michael Robinson
Michael Robinson
Weiss Ratings
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The Largest Cost Drop in Four Years. The Rate Market Missed It.

The ISM Prices Paid index fell 9.1 points in June. From 82.1 to 73.0. That is the largest single-month drop since July 2022. The last time factory input costs fell that fast, inflation had already peaked and the Fed did not know it for six more months. The rate market is pricing a September hike. The factory floor just told you the cost ceiling is cracking. One of them adjusts today at 8:30 a.m., when the June jobs report lands.
The Breakdown
Today’s disagreement: factory input costs just posted their sharpest decline in four years. The bond market is still pricing persistent inflation. The jobs report at 8:30 a.m. picks a side.
01
The Price Break
ISM Prices Paid fell to 73.0 in June from 82.1 in May. A 9.1-point drop. That is the steepest monthly decline since July 2022, when the index fell 18.5 points as the inflation cycle peaked. Fifteen of eighteen manufacturing industries still reported rising costs. But the share of respondents reporting higher prices dropped 11.2 percentage points in a single month.
02
The Expansion Held
ISM Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 in June. Down from 54.0 but the sixth straight month above 50. New orders at 56.0. Production at 52.2. The factory floor slowed but did not stall. Employment rose to 49.7 from 48.6 — still contracting but at the mildest pace since January 2025.
03
The Morning Fork
June nonfarm payrolls release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Consensus: roughly 114,000, down from May’s 172,000. Unemployment expected steady at 4.3%. A hot number cements the hike. A soft number reopens the debate the ISM prices data just started.
By the Numbers
ISM Prices Paid (Jun)73.0 — 4-mo low
ISM Prices Paid (May)82.1 (−9.1 pts)
ISM Mfg PMI (Jun)53.3 (6th expansion)
ISM Mfg Employment (Jun)49.7 (best since Jan ’25)
NFP Forecast (Jun)~114K (prev: 172K)
10-Yr Treasury Yield4.47%
Sources: ISM, BLS, U.S. Treasury. ISM data as of Jul 1; yield as of Jul 1 close.

The Cost Ceiling Cracked. The Bond Market Kept Pricing the Old One.

What 9.1 Points Means

A nine-point drop in ISM Prices Paid does not happen in normal months. It happens at inflection points. The last comparable move was July 2022, when Prices Paid fell 18.5 points. That was the month CPI had peaked. The Fed did not acknowledge the turn until December.

Nobody is calling this a peak. Costs are still rising. But the rate of increase just decelerated faster than at any point since the last inflation cycle broke. That is not noise. That is the purchasing managers who buy the steel telling you the pressure is lifting.

Where the Relief Came From

Oil is doing the heavy lifting. Strait of Hormuz shipping resumed. Crude has retreated toward pre-war levels. In this tape, the energy-driven cost spike that dominated the first half is unwinding faster than the consensus expected.

Steel and aluminum tariffs still show up in respondent comments. But the petroleum component, the piece the Fed watches closest, is rolling over. Our view: the market is still trading last month’s ISM. It has not repriced the June data yet.

The Hiring Thaw

ISM employment improved to 49.7. Still below 50. Still contracting. But the mildest contraction in eighteen months. Yesterday we wrote about the hiring freeze. Today the data suggests the freeze is starting to crack from the cost side. When input prices fall, margins widen. When margins widen, the hiring line thaws. That is the mechanism.

What 8:30 a.m. Decides

June nonfarm payrolls land this morning. Consensus sits around 114,000, a step down from May’s 172,000. The White House hinted at strength. BofA called for 110,000 and said a strong number means three hikes this year.

Worth watching: if payrolls come in soft while the ISM prices data shows cost relief, the September hike priced at 65% starts to wobble. If payrolls come in hot, the bond market gets the confirmation it wants and the ISM price signal gets buried. The data at 8:30 is a verdict on which half of the economy is telling the truth.
The last time factory costs fell this fast, inflation had already peaked and the Fed spent six months catching up. The purchasing managers just told you something the bond market hasn’t heard.
The Ledger Letter
When markets disagree, the signal is in the disagreement.
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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