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The Ledger Letter
Finance Studio Advisors · Wednesday, September 23, 2026
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Three Fed Officials Warned on Inflation. The Nasdaq Closed at a Record.
The FOMC raised its target to 3.75% and 4.00% on September 16, unanimously, and projected one more move this year. Since then Collins, Barkin and Williams have all spoken. None of them softened it. The Nasdaq Composite has closed at a record twice this week anyway. The tape is not arguing with the Fed. It is pricing something else.
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The Breakdown
Today's disagreement: the Fed and its speakers point one way on inflation, and the equity record was built on two things they do not set.
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| 01 |
The Record Is Real
The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.26% on Monday to 27,122.09, its first record close since June 2. Tuesday added another, at 27,244. The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,764.70. Five straight up sessions for the tech complex.
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| 02 |
Nobody at the Fed Blinked
Collins wrote that inflation is more likely to stay notably above target. Barkin, in Baltimore, said the passing shocks are not proving short lived. The committee's own projections show one more move this year.
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| 03 |
What Actually Moved
Crude fell 4.5% on Monday to settle at $95.78, after topping $100 last week. The ten-year slipped back under 5%, trading at 4.959% on Tuesday. Those two did the work.
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By the Numbers
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,244, record close | | Fed funds target | 3.75% to 4.00%, unanimous | | 10-Year Treasury | 4.959%, back under 5% | | WTI Crude | $95.78, down 4.5% Monday | | October hike, futures | About 53% |
Index and yield levels for Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Crude settlement for Monday, September 21. Fed target and vote per the FOMC, September 16. Futures pricing per CME FedWatch.
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A Record Built on Two Things the Fed Does Not Set
The Story on the Screen
The easy read is that the market called the Fed's bluff. A quarter point on September 16, and the Nasdaq is at a record seven days later. Intel rose 12% on Monday. Advanced Micro Devices added about 10% and crossed a trillion in market value. Qualcomm gained more than 9%. The AI trade did what it has done all year.
What the Fed Has Said Since
Three officials have spoken since the vote, and the message has not moved. Susan Collins of Boston backed the increase and warned that inflation is more likely to sit notably above the 2% target. Tom Barkin of Richmond spoke in Baltimore. He said the supposedly passing shocks are not proving short lived, and left the door open to more. John Williams of New York defended the mechanics of rate control. The vote was twelve to none. The projections point to another move this year.
Why This Is Not a Fed Trade
Look at what changed underneath the rally. Crude settled at $95.78 on Monday, down 4.5% in a session, after trading above $100 the week before. The ten-year, which had spent days above 5%, came back to 4.959%. Cheaper energy lowers the inflation input. A lower long yield raises what a future dollar of tech earnings is worth today. Neither of those is the Fed changing its mind. Both are inputs that can reverse in a week, and one of them turns on a Middle East headline.
What to Watch This Morning
Two Fed officials speak at 10:05 and 10:20 Eastern. The test is simple. If they repeat the Barkin line about shocks that will not pass, watch the ten-year rather than the equity screen. Futures already put roughly 53% on a move in October. A record close and a coin flip on another hike cannot both be right for long. The supports under this rally are an oil price and a bond yield, and you can check both before lunch.
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The Fed set the rate. Oil and the ten-year set the record.
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