The Ledger Letter
Finance Studio Advisors · Monday, October 12, 2026
 

Inflation Is Expected at 3.7%. The Core Is at 2.5%. The Fed Has to Choose.

Economists expect Wednesday’s September CPI to show prices up 3.7% from a year ago, up from 3.4% in August. Strip out food and energy, and the forecast is 2.5%. That 1.2-point gap is mostly energy. The gap matters because households pay the first number, while the Fed reads the second for the trend. Traders give an October rate hike only a 19% chance.
 
The Breakdown
Today’s disagreement: the headline forecast says inflation is speeding up; the core forecast says the underlying trend is calm.
 
01
The Headline
Higher energy prices are expected to lift September CPI 0.6% for the month, per Reuters. That would put the annual rate at 3.7%.
02
The Core
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is seen rising 0.2% for the month and 2.5% for the year.
03
The Odds
Markets price a 19% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 meeting, per CME FedWatch. The bond market is closed today for Columbus Day.
A Message From Our Partner
Editor’s Note: More than 15 years ago, Porter Stansberry’s warning about the destruction of the dollar went viral. In his critical new documentary he explains why it came true, and reveals the radical reset of America’s money he believes could finally reverse our decline.
If you have savings in the bank or a stock portfolio, make time to watch it today.
 
I don’t know about you, but it feels to me like our country is dying.
The virtues that built this nation, hard work, thrift, personal responsibility, and sacrifice, have been turned upside down.
The truth is, I barely recognize our country anymore.
Our inner cities have murder rates that would shame a failed state in the Third World.
A generation of adult men are still living in their childhood bedrooms, unable to even imagine starting a family.
More than a million young women are selling themselves to strangers on the internet, and calling it empowerment.
Addiction is everywhere: Gambling. Opioids. Pornography. Debt. All spreading through every zip code in America.
And the price of a decent life, healthy food, a nice car, a good home, has simply become too steep for most hard working Americans to afford.
An American Tragedy
If you’re like me, you’ve watched all of this unfold and asked yourself one simple question:
What the hell is going on?
Well, more than 15 years ago, I warned that America was heading toward this exact kind of social breakdown.
Today, I want to show you why that warning came true…
And, more importantly, what I believe comes next.
But first, we have to understand what brought us here.
The right blames the collapse of the family and the church. The left blames capitalism, racism, and inequality. The TV news blames social media and our failing schools.
But what they’re all describing is the smoke, not the fire.
Because I believe there’s a single cause underneath all of it, one unseen, unspoken force that ties together all the madness, the crime, the despair, and the decay.
Sociologists have a name for it. But almost no economist on Earth really understands it.
That word is anomie, the breakdown of a society’s moral order.
It’s the moment when everything stops making sense, when virtue stops being rewarded, and an entire nation quietly stops believing in the future.
Sound familiar?
But anomie is not a cultural disease. It’s a monetary one.
The Dollar’s Last Dance
When a nation’s money becomes worthless… when it intentionally debases its currency… it doesn’t just rob its savers, it breaks the invisible contract that holds civilization together.
It breaks the sacred moral promise that hard work, thrift, and sacrifice today will be worth something tomorrow.
Destroy that promise and you destroy the reason to behave and to believe in the future.
It happened in Rome, as emperors clipped the silver from the denarius, and birth rates collapsed, crime soared, and the spectacles grew more depraved by the decade.
It happened in Weimar Germany, as the mark was printed into confetti, and Berlin became the vice capital of Europe almost overnight.
While respectable families sold their furniture, speculators made fortunes by leveraging the cheap money.
Debased money and a debased society are not two stories, they are one story. And, sadly, it is now America’s story.
Because when money stops holding its value, time itself stops feeling valuable. Life feels worthless.
Why work? Why save? Why invest for the future? Why sacrifice for your family or your country, when everything around you says sacrifice is for suckers, and the game is rigged for the people standing next to the money printer?
The young men trapped in their bedrooms understand this, even if they can’t articulate it.
So do the workers who quit their jobs to collect a welfare check… the couples who never marry or have kids… the women degrading themselves on OnlyFans… and the millions numbing themselves one scroll and one online bet at a time.
They’re not lazy. They’re not stupid. They are responding, quite rationally, to a currency and a government that has failed them.
Trump's New Dollar
Ever since America’s money was untethered from anything real, the dollar has lost more than 80% of its purchasing power.
And in that time the moral fabric of this country has unraveled in lockstep.
That’s not a coincidence, that’s cause and effect.
If you want to rebuild America’s culture, you must first rebuild America’s money.
I know how most people feel about all of this. They’re lost. And they’ve given up.
They look at the direction we’re heading and see an inevitable, unstoppable slide, into moral decay, into financial ruin, into a country that makes them afraid for their children and grandchildren.
They’ve stopped expecting anyone to fix it. Maybe you have, too.
I understand that feeling, but I’m here to tell you it’s wrong.
Trump’s Reset
Right now, something is in motion that could reverse this destructive slide, the first serious effort in half a century to repair the broken heart of the American monetary system.
I don’t know if it will work. I don’t know if it will come in time.
But I believe the Trump administration is moving heaven and earth to make it happen, mobilizing trillions of dollars, and redrawing the entire architecture of American money in the process.
There was no debate in Congress. No vote. And no public announcement.
Yet I’d like to show you why I believe this reset is already underway.
And potentially as soon as this coming December, Trump’s monetary reset could be announced, in all but name, to a gathering of world leaders in Miami.
This has nothing to do with CBDCs, Bitcoin, crypto, or digital money.
But soon, every American could be using Trump’s New Dollar to pay for groceries, gas, medical bills and practically everything else, whether they support it or not.
This controversial monetary system is, in my view, already sending enormous waves of capital into a narrow group of companies and assets, which could create substantial returns for those already in position.
The White House calls the initiative behind it a “transformative force for our long-term prosperity.”
And Fortune says what’s unfolding is “the biggest change to the world’s relationship with the dollar” in a generation.
Yet most Americans have no idea it is happening, and are not prepared for it.
And that could be very dangerous, because the last time America reset its money, 52 years ago, it divided the country in two.
In the decades that followed, by some estimates America created more than a thousand new millionaires every day.
The greatest fortunes went to those who understood the new rules, and owned the assets the new monetary system rewarded.
But, sadly, countless families were left behind.
They worked hard. They lived within their means. They carefully put money aside for the future.
Yet still, they watched their wages stagnate, their savings steadily hollowed out, and the American Dream move further beyond their reach.
Not because they made foolish decisions. But because nobody told them the rules of money had changed.
And now, I believe that same dividing line is being drawn again.
Which side your family ends up on may depend on what you do with the information in my new documentary.
I’ve produced it to explain exactly what Trump’s New Dollar could mean for your savings, your portfolio, and your family’s financial future…
To reveal the companies I believe could benefit the most as this new monetary order takes hold…
And to give you the name and ticker of my No. 1 move to make right now.
WATCH IT TODAY.
Good Investing,
Porter Stansberry
 
By the Numbers
CPI Forecast, September3.7% y/y, up 0.6% m/m
Core CPI Forecast2.5% y/y, up 0.2% m/m
CPI, August3.4% y/y, core 2.4%
October Hike Odds19%
S&P 500, Year to DateUp about 13.5%
Forecasts per Reuters via Investing.com. August CPI per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hike odds per CME FedWatch. Index data per Yahoo Finance, Monday, October 12, 2026.
A Message From Our Partner
On a Sunday evening in August 1971, President Nixon interrupted television programming with an announcement that would permanently reshape the financial system.
Most Americans didn’t realize it at the time.
But after the U.S. officially moved away from the gold standard, inflation accelerated, the dollar changed, and gold entered one of the biggest rallies in modern history.
Today, many investors believe we may be approaching another important financial turning point.
That’s why this new FREE guide is getting attention.
Inside, you’ll discover:
  • What actually happened the night Nixon ended the gold standard
  • Why gold prices surged in the years that followed
  • Why some analysts believe gold could become even more important ahead
  • How retirement savers are using diversification strategies during uncertain markets
  • The “wealth transfer” theory many Americans are now watching closely
Whether you already invest in gold or are simply curious about what may come next, this report offers a deeper look into one of the most talked-about financial topics today.
Free gold guide
DOWNLOAD YOUR FREE GUIDE TODAY
Reagan Gold Group is not a financial or tax advisor and has no fiduciary obligations to its clients.

The Number You Pay vs. the Number the Fed Watches

What the Headlines Lead With

Most coverage this morning leads with the busy week ahead. Big banks report Tuesday. CPI lands Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Producer prices and retail sales follow Thursday.

Stock futures were little changed early Monday after a week in which the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set records. The Treasury market is shut for the holiday.

Oil is holding above $100 a barrel this morning, per Reuters. That is the reason the CPI forecast looks so different from the core.

Two Inflation Rates, One Paycheck

Headline CPI measures everything a household buys, including gasoline and groceries. Core CPI removes food and energy because those prices swing hard from month to month.

The Fed has long argued that core is the better guide to where inflation is heading. Fuel spikes often fade on their own.

Households do not live on core. They fill the tank and buy the groceries at headline prices.

That gap also shapes how people feel. Friday’s sentiment survey cited inflation pressure from the Iran war and tariffs. The headline is the number that reaches the kitchen table first.

Our view: a 3.7% headline next to a 2.5% core puts the Fed in an awkward spot. Hiking into an oil shock risks slowing an economy already showing weak hiring. Holding risks looking slow while prices at the pump climb.

What It Means for Your Money

Savers feel the headline number most. A savings account paying 4% leaves only a thin real gain when prices rise 3.7%.

Borrowers feel the core number, because it drives the Fed’s rate path. A calm core keeps a pause in play, which is why hike odds sit near one in five.

Investors feel both. The two numbers point different ways. Energy companies tend to benefit from a hot headline. Rate-sensitive stocks, from homebuilders to small banks, benefit from a calm core.

The Week Ahead

Watch core CPI on Wednesday. A 0.2% monthly reading would match the forecast and keep October hike odds low. A 0.3% or higher reading would raise the odds of another hike.

Bank earnings on Tuesday will add a second read. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all report. Their comments on consumer credit will show how households are coping with prices.

Worth watching: whether oil holds above $100 into Wednesday. If it falls back, the headline forecast may already be too high.

From Our Partner
Elon is NOT building the replacement.
The Fed reads the core. The checkout line reads the headline.

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